Property: is it a gamble?

Talk to any professional gambler, and they will tell you to look at trends: 'A horse aged 7 has won 9 out of the last 10 meetings'. 'Every winner of this race has come off the back of a previous win'. '6 out of the last 7 games between these sides have ended in draws'. There's endless trends for each race/fixture to analyse. People talk to me on a daily basis about the 'risk' of buying in the current market like they're taking a punt on the 100/1 shot at The Grand National! Maybe they should be analysing the trends of the property market.

In 2005, economist Fred Harrison predicted that the housing market was about to crash in the next 2-3 years… how did he know? He analysed trends. There were crashes in the property market in 1953-4, 1971-2 and 1989-90 – a crash every 18 years. Even more astonishingly, you can break down these 18 year periods into 5 different sections – crash/recovery/boom/pause/mini-boom…. repeat.

Looking back over the last 2 years, most property experts would agree that prices have been pretty stagnant – the impact of Brexit is obvious, but more notably, we are currently sitting in the 'pause' phase of the 18 year cycle. You're only 3 paragraphs in, but I think you can see where we're going with this – a mini boom is on the way! 2 American billionaire families have even taken the unprecedented step of joining together and announcing they will be snapping up as much UK property as they can get their hands on over the next 5 years. You don't become a billionaire by making poor financial decisions!

To conclude, now is definitely the right time to buy. A mini boom is on the way, and if you leave it too late into that mini-boom, you'll be buying at the top of the market before the next crash in 2025-26. Trust the trends and you will not be let down. Research Fred Harrison. Get on the property ladder and on with your life. Once a decision has been made on Brexit, property prices are going to rise – this is the catalyst for the mini-boom.

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